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To maintain control, U.S. must expand Internet use, expert says
By Sue Vorenberg
Tribune reporter
The United States needs to regard the Internet in a different way if it wants to continue its world economic dominance in the coming centuries, says one online expert. Kazuhiko Nishi, president of ASCII Corp., discussed the Internet, the future of telecommunications and Microsoft during a talk last week before the Japan-America Society of New Mexico. "For America the Internet is very important for economic national security," said Nishi, who is called the Bill Gates of Japan. "Soon the Internet is going to absorb the telephone industry. It's a matter of time before it absorbs the television industry. The question is what role can Japan play in this growth and how that relates to America's domination in this technology." Nishi was the seventh person hired by Microsoft in 1978 when it was still located in New Mexico. He later worked for the company as director and vice president in charge of new technologies from 1980 to 1986. During his speech, Nishi reminisced about living with Bill Gates for three months when Nishi first came to Albuquerque in 1978. "We slept on the floor of the office most of the time," Nishi said. "The only pastime we had was driving really fast and sneaking into hotel pools by security guards." He doesn't think the proposed breakup of Microsoft will hurt the company. In fact, Nishi said he thinks it will be good for Microsoft. "Bill Gates will say no to the breakup for sure," Nishi said. "He will go to the Supreme Court for sure. I personally feel they should be divided. His net worth will be doubled. If Microsoft becomes even 10 Microsofts, I think they will prosper a lot. I think the desire to stay one company reflects the big ego of management." Nishi left Microsoft in 1986 and continued his business career in Japan. A multi-millionaire, he is also the founder of ASCII Corp., another pioneering computer-industry business. Nishi has taught and lectured throughout Japan and the United States. In the thesis for his second Ph.D., Nishi investigated world history over the past 6,000 years and found that all the countries that have achieved economic world dominance -- England, Egypt, Spain and Norway -- have never regained their power. Typically, countries can only maintain their dominance for about 100 years, he said, but the use of technology can expand that timeframe. "If you don't use technology, the prosperity only lasts a short time," Nishi said. "Using technology makes it last much longer." The United States has experienced economic growth and prosperity since the late 1800s. To continue, it needs to embrace and encourage the continued development of the Internet, Nishi said. "America needs to think about the Internet as more than just a way to encourage business and commerce," Nishi said. "The biggest theme in the long view of the Internet is not the main popular view. It's education. It's expansion of knowledge." Nishi said there are three elements to ensure continued U.S. control over Internet technology: Integrate the growth of U.S. information technology with other nations' information technology sectors; expand e-commerce globally and make the U.S. dollar the main world currency; and encourage the use of English as the world's standard language. These conditions already exist to some extent. Because the Internet was developed in the United States, most Web pages are in English. And much of Web commerce takes place in U.S. currency. Nishi suggested the United States spread computer education throughout the world, raise national computer education to the highest level in the world and establish and protect copyrights at an international level. "It's best to send your kids to school to study the Internet now," Nishi said. "It's also probably time to quit your job and go back to school to study the Internet if you're an adult. It will be that important in the future." There are several barriers to U.S. domination of the global technology, however. They include a strong resistance to the English language standard by Arabic-speaking nations and other countries; low levels of skilled computer users globally; and problems using electronic currency, Nishi said. "If you can't speak English on the Web, you are left alone," Nishi said. "There is a growing gap, and countries are being left behind. This is the biggest problem that hasn't been resolved. The language barrier is our biggest challenge and target." In the next 10 to 20 years, when the Internet is expected to reach its maturity as a technology, Nishi says he expects translation software and cultural education to become major components to those who would dominate the industry and its technology. "Language educators have to teach not just language, but the comparison of cultures," Nishi said. "There is great potential for misunderstanding and miscommunication in this new global world." In Japan, which controls a large portion of the Internet equipment industry, there are mixed feelings about how to approach the Internet. About half the population wants to compete with the United States for Internet domination. The other half wants to catch up and work with the United States in order to capture a piece of the market. Nishi says it is impossible to overtake the United States in the global market, however, because Japan's university education is too weak, not enough Japanese people speak English, much of the country's PC industry has moved to Taiwan and the United States is already dominating the Internet globally. He said instead Japan should concentrate on catching up with the United States by establishing high-speed connections with the United States, encouraging English education, supporting university collaboration between the two countries and nurturing Japan's information appliance industry. "The world will benefit from the U.S. establishing global dominance," Nishi said. "This is the best way for the world. Japan's role will be to work together with the U.S. rather than working against it." Currently the countries in the best positions to control the Internet are the United States, Canada, Mexico and Japan, Nishi said. In the late 21st and 22nd centuries, however, he thinks India and China may be in strong positions to take over the industry. India is already building its high-speed Internet infrastructure and many Indians speak English. China is also in a strong position technologically, but because its government blocks information and reads e-mails coming into the country, it may lag behind. In New Mexico, Nishi said the state's lagging telecommunications infrastructure may not be as big a problem as many experts think. The lack of infrastructure in many areas leaves the state open to the newest advances, he said. "It's not always good to be fast," Nishi said. "You have to wait for the technology to mature. The key is to wait for low-cost technology to mature, and then wire the schools, hospitals and laboratories. Then you can do the government and then commercial services. There's plenty of time." Returning to Albuquerque after living here in the late 1970s, Nishi said he was impressed with the way the city has grown. "The development in the last 20 years has been amazing," Nishi said. "Someone has done an excellent job. When I was here it was very rural. If New Mexico can develop this way, Microsoft should have stayed here."
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